SOARING SWISS FRANC PROMPTS DAVOS MOVE TO AVIEMORE
In a world exclusive, Scot-Buzz editor Bill Jamieson reveals a dramatic move sparked by the sudden leap in the Swiss franc. The World Economic Forum, due to begin at the ski resort of Davos, has been switched this week to the Ardlogie Guest House, Aviemore.
World leaders including Chinese premier Li Keqiang, Angela Merkel and US Treasury Secretary John Kerry together with Lloyd Blankfein of Goldman Sachs and BP’s Bob Dudley have been caught out by last week’s dramatic move by the Swiss National Bank to renege on previous assurances and remove the cap on the currency.
Hotel, bar and restaurant costs for incoming visitors have soared, sparking a move to Aviemore for the five day event. “In Davos, you’ll need more quantitative easing”, quipped one attendee, “just for a round of drinks”.
The BBC has taken the Macdonald Aviemore Resort while other media are being directed to budget hotels in nearby Newtonmore.
This high minded event draws a wide array of academics, corporate leaders and politicians at an otherwise dull and depressing period in the year for the annual feast of name-dropping.
The venue switch will mean an easier commute for this year’s WEF conference co-chair Katherine Garret-Cox, chief executive of the £3.5 billion Dundee-based Alliance Trust.
She told The Sunday Times of the immense value of the event, whose themes this year will be growth, social inclusion, corporate leadership, climate change and the future of the internet.
“A lot gets done behind closed doors”, she said. “In a few days you can meet and have conversations with people who could take you a year or two otherwise to co-ordinate diaries with.
“I sat next to Bill Gates at dinner a few years back and we ended up talking not just about the advance of technology but bigger issues like climate change and the extent to which people will be replaced by robots. It was truly brilliant.”
Tough luck if your dinner companion this year is Willie Rennie.
“There’s an increasing fear”, says Garret-Cox, “that the world is becoming more federal and fragmented while the macro backdrop is increasingly fragile. Leadership, particularly in 2015, needs to be extremely resilient.”
And nowhere is resilience more needed than at the boarding-party threatened Alliance Trust.
Scot-Buzz has had an exclusive sneak preview of key presentations at the conference.
Unmissable events include:
Christine Lagarde in dialogue with Russell Brand (plus revised IMF forecasts for the week ahead)
Goldman Sachs’ Lloyd Blankfein on My Plan to Tackle Income and Wealth Inequality
Scotland’s Finance Minister John Swinney on a new set of forecasts of North Sea oil revenues (sold out).
Katherine Garret-Cox on Hot Stock Market Tips (seats available)
Ed Balls Masterclass: Debt Reduction For All
Mark Carney on ‘Central Banking Without Surprises’ (empty chair available on stage, Swiss National Bank governor has withdrawn)
After dinner entertainment: Frankie Boyle explains Quantitative Easing
Celebrity author Alan Cochrane, who has met them all and dismissed them as eejits, will be signing copies of his book Alan Cochrane: My Part in His Downfall.
In addition, Creative Scotland, in association with Scottish Film, is sponsoring the premiere showing of the epic: The Scottish Independence Referendum (running time 5 hours, plus two intervals; audience advised to pre-order drinks).
For the world’s media looking for local colour, nearby Newtonmore offers a wide range of offbeat attractions. These include the Waltzing Waters Light and Water Show, the Highland Folk Park, the Highland Folk Museum, the Clan Macpherson Museum and General Wade’s Roads.
Alternatively the 8.30am train from Aviemore gets you back into Edinburgh at 11.17.
BUSINESS NEWS IN BRIEF
START-UP LOANS SCHEME TO BE TREBLED
Prime Minister David Cameron has announced plans to treble the Start-Up Loans scheme, which hands out sums of around £5,000 to help young entrepreneurs. At least 75,000 loans will have been made by 2020, according to the PM, creating at least 100,000 jobs. Mr Cameron sought to appeal directly to small businesses, with four months before the election. “These are people we admire and want to help”, he declared yesterday. “Other parties preach about this sort of stuff; but we're the ones who really deliver.” Hmmm. We’ll see.
IS SCOTLAND READY FOR FRACKING?
10th February An expert scientific panel report for the Scottish Government last July said Scotland could develop a shale gas industry at scale, while industrial powerhouse Ineos has argued it could "revolutionise UK manufacturing". This will be theme of a Scotsman Conferences event on February 10. Hear from chairman of the expert panel Dr Chris Masters, Gary Haywood of Ineos, energy analysts and more to debate the prospects of shale gas exploration coming to Scotland. More details at www.scotsmanconferences.com.
SCOTTISH FARMS ‘OUTPACING UK’
Scotland’s agricultural sector is performing better than many parts of the UK, according to new research by insolvency trade body R3.In January the proportion of agricultural businesses with a higher than normal risk of insolvency was 12%, below the UK average of 14%.This places Scotland in line with the North East and East of England, and ahead of Wales (17%), the South East (16%) and West Midlands (15%). Scotland’s agricultural industry remained relatively stable in the second half of 2014, with the proportion of ‘higher risk’ firms rising by just one per cent between July and December.
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FINANCIAL SERVICES PICK-UP
Most financial services firms reported rising business volumes in the three months to December, according to the latest CBI/PwC Financial Services Survey. Business volumes rose at the fastest pace since the mid-1990s. Almost two-thirds of financial services firms reported higher business volumes, with a balance of +57 per cent - the strongest growth since December 1996. Building societies were the exception, with business volumes falling unexpectedly. The focus remains on technology and digital innovation as well as regulatory compliance. Steve Davies, UK head of retail banking, based at PwC’s Edinburgh office, says “Increasing investment in land and buildings is also a sign of banks looking at expanding into cities outside London such as Edinburgh and Manchester due to high cost and capacity issues in the capital.”
FIRST EVER CAT CAFE FOR EDINBURGH
2015 sees the first of its kind cat café in Stockbridge, Edinburgh. Based on a Japanese style café, customers are invited to play, photograph and cuddle the cats while enjoying a hot beverage. Owner Laura O’Neill, 27, came up with the idea of Maison de Moggy on a trip to Japan where one of the most recommended activities on Trip Advisor was to visit a cat café. The focus is very much on the cats and not the usual cake and food we associate with cafes. Why not try something new this year, and swap the cake for a selfie with a cat instead? You can find out more and follow the Maison de Moggy story on Facebook.
COPYRIGHT CONFERENCE DATE FOR THE DIARY
Have copyright laws kept pace with the digital age? How can the creative industries and cultural heritage sector best protect the ownership and management of written and recorded materials when content can be shared globally with the tap of a smartphone? At a Scotsman Conferences event on February 2 speakers from the British Library, UK Intellectual Property Office and leading universities discuss changes and challenges in Copyright and Cultural Heritage 2.0: Protecting creators, sharing content. Speakers from the British Library, UK Intellectual Property Office and leading universities discuss changes and challenges. Further details at www.scotsmanconferences.com.
ONE-STOP PROPERTY DATABASE FOR SCOTLAND?
Should Scotland follow countries like Norway in moving to a one-stop database which allows easy, but secure access to the data and documents needed to support land and property transactions and wider public services? What benefits could this deliver to the business community and consumers, especially in areas like conveyancing? Book early to ensure a place at a Scotsman Conferences debate on March 10 on this issue. Details at www.scotsmanconferences.com.
CROWD FUNDING PLATFORM FOR PROPERTY INVESTORS
An innovative way to invest in the UK residential property market has been launched with the crowdfunding platform, Property Partner. It enables investment in individual residential properties, receive a monthly rental income and benefit from any capital growth in direct proportion to their ownership. The platform also enables investors to offer their property holdings for sale via a designated secondary market. The launch follows a £1.25m seed funding round involving Octopus Investments (backers of Zoopla), Jon Moulton (founder of Alchemy Partners and Better Capital) and Ed Wray (co-founder of Betfair and Director of Funding Circle).More details at https://propertypartner.co.uk
Economy Forecast
25 Jan
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START UP ENTREPRENEURS - THE DOWNSIDES
We well know the merits of starting up a business and being your own boss. You get to play to your strengths, set your own hours – and are freed up from those interminable office meetings about meetings.
But there are sacrifices, too.
Neglecting family, working more than 60 hours a week – and not paying yourself a decent wage are top of the list.
With the start of the New Year the Post Office has noted a spike in the number of people planning to launch out on their own. And a study to see how far Brits will go to work independently has revealed that 43 per cent of entrepreneurs aren't able to pay themselves a regular wage.
Although the lack of income was considered the biggest sacrifice for almost half of entrepreneurs, being unable to pay a personal salary spiked to 54 per cent for those starting up in media and marketing.
Meanwhile, 16 per cent of respondents said little time off for holidays was the biggest challenge. Broken down by region, this spiked to 23 per cent in Scotland and 19 per cent in the south of the UK but fell to eight per cent of business owners in the north.
After that, says reporter Zen Terrelonge, “ it's perhaps of little surprise that long hours are also a sacrifice, thus 12 per cent admit they will work more than 60 hours a week to get the company up to speed and consider that the biggest issue, according to the findings”.
When looked at by sector, financial entrepreneurs claim to work shorter hours as 21 per cent said they put in around 50 hours a week compared to 49 per cent of those in hospitality, who work the longest across all industries.
As a result, ten per cent of SME founders said spending less time with their family was the biggest sacrifice.
Pete Markey, chief marketing officer, Post Office, said: “The first year of trading in any business is often one of the hardest and our study shows that entrepreneurs face having to make serious sacrifices when starting up a business.
“Administrative tasks can be notoriously time consuming so finding ways to streamline this activity for maximum efficiency can make all the difference in freeing up spare time.”
Indeed, the report claims administration is one of the largest tasks, and 12 per cent of entrepreneurs spend more than ten hours a week on the duty, which is equivalent to 21 days a year.
